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[Stew]

I'm surprised, because Mugabe met with his security chiefs and they were all in agreement that his only two course of action should be to 1) declare martial law, or 2) declare electoral victory.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a072986e-...0077b07658.html

Loyalty of military key to Mugabe’s future

By Alec Russell, Southern Africa Correspondent

Published: March 31 2008 18:41 | Last updated: March 31 2008 18:41

When President Robert Mugabe held a crisis meeting on Sunday night to consider his options in the wake of mounting evidence of an opposition victory in the weekend’s elections, it was not with his cabinet, nor with the officials of his ruling Zanu-PF party.

Rather he met the “securocrats” – Zimbabwe’s heads of intelligence, military and security, and according to diplomatic sources their advice was just about as hardline as it has been in every government decision since they assumed a prime role in running the country some years ago.

“In the JOC [Joint Operations Command] meeting there were two options on the table for Mugabe: declare victory on Sunday night or declare martial law,” said a diplomat who spoke to two sources privy to the meeting.

“They didn’t consider conceding. We understand Mugabe nearly decided to declare victory. Cooler heads have prevailed,” he added, saying a decision was taken to rely on the state-appointed Zimbabwe Election Commission to delay the release of results, then try to fix the result in the counting process. The defiant stance is in keeping with the recent record of the JOC, which has held increasing sway over government decisions since the presidential election in 2002.

Diplomats and Zanu-PF dissidents say it is this body which will be decisive in steering the autocrat’s stance in the political crisis engulfing Zimbabwe after Saturday’s elections.

With this in mind, Morgan Tsvangirai, leader of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change, who according to independent tallies of the vote is sweeping to victory in the presidential race, has in the past 24 hours put out feelers to the military. He is hoping that with results from polling stations showing Zanu-PF has been all but routed, increasingly the thoughts of the military chiefs will turn to their own future rather than that of the regime.

In the countdown to the election, heads of the police and the army said they would not take orders from Mr Tsvangirai if he won. According to sources close to the opposition leader, he has sent a message to Solomon Mujuru, a former army commander and a powerbroker in Zanu-PF, asking what “guarantees” the military might want from a new administration. As of Monday morning he had not received a response.

Military officers hold senior positions in civilian bodies such as the Grain Marketing Board, the Electoral Supervisory Commission and the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe. According to a report last year by the International Crisis Group, the JOC oversaw the government’s strategy in the regional attempts to mediate between Zanu-PF and the opposition.

Publicly, senior figures in Zanu-PF are putting a brave face on the situation. But privately they were stunned, analysts say, by the results which, according to independent monitors, signal their first electoral defeat since they took power at independence in 1980. However Mr Mugabe decides to respond, with the economy in freefall, most appreciate that their control on power – and the access to business opportunities and state patronage that has given them – cannot last much longer, say insiders.

One of the critical questions for Zimbabwe now is whether the military commanders can rely on their subordinates to obey orders if the JOC and Mr Mugabe decide to initiate a clampdown on the opposition, as they have done before when under pressure.

In the event of Mr Mugabe claiming a disputed victory, an outbreak of widespread violence, as happened in Kenya in December under similar circumstances, seems unlikely. Zimbabwe does not have Kenya’s combustible ethnic divide, and opposition leaders are keen to avoid giving the government an excuse for a crackdown. But the party fears that the security might use isolated cases of protests to impose a state of emergency.

Mr Mugabe has been careful to try to retain the military commanders’ loyalty. In a speech a year ago he praised the security forces as “the vanguard of our revolution and national integrity” and hailed their “critical role in buttressing our economic activities”.

But diplomats and analysts have long speculated that many in the lower ranks of the security forces are increasingly disillusioned with the regime, given that their families, like most Zimbabweans, are suffering hardship. “Mugabe is in the hands of the military command and they are in the hands of the soldiers, and they sense that the rank and file are not wholly loyal,” said one diplomat.