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[Stew]

It's official, Mugabe's beaten. The only problem now is whether he's pigheaded enough to create shit-fucks of bloodshed, or a smaller amount.

April 3, 2008 - 6:12AM

Zimbabwe's opposition claimed victory over Robert Mugabe in presidential elections, as official results showed the veteran leader's ruling party had lost its parliamentary majority.

As state media predicted a run-off between Mugabe and his arch rival Morgan Tsvangirai, the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) opposition said its own calculations showed party leader Tsvangirai had passed the 50 per cent threshold for outright victory.

But the MDC's pre-emptive announcement, which came before any declaration by the official electoral commission on the presidential contest, was swiftly condemned by the Mugabe government.

Diplomatic sources meanwhile said there were intensive behind-the-scenes efforts to persuade 84-year-old Mugabe, who has ruled the former British colony since independence in 1980, to depart the scene peacefully.

Frustrated at the slow work of the electoral commission since Saturday's joint polls, the MDC's secretary-general Tendai Biti told a press conference that Tsvangirai had won 50.2 per cent of votes against 43.8 per cent for Mugabe.

"Put simply he has won this election ... Morgan Richard Tsvangirai is the next president of the Republic of Zimbabwe, without a run-off."

Biti said the party believed that the government was trying to massage the results and pointed to a front-page story in Wednesday's Herald newspaper that said there was now likely to be a run-off as neither man had a clear majority.

"The state media has already begin to prepare the people for a run-off in 21 days ... If that is the position this party will contest the run-off," he added.

Biti also said that, based on its own calculations, the MDC had won a total of 110 seats, including 11 MPs who are part of a splinter faction.

Shortly afterwards, the latest results from the electoral commission showed Mugabe's ZANU-PF party had lost its majority in the 210-seat parliament.

The two MDC factions now have a combined total of 105 seats while an independent candidate, Mugabe's former information minister Jonathan Moyo, also retained his seat. ZANU-PF's total currently stands at 93.

"The new parliament, with us in the majority, is going to give the people power and freedom through legislation," said Tsvangirai's senior aide Nelson Chamisa in reaction to the results.

With Mugabe's grip on power starting to loosen, diplomatic sources said there was a concerted effort to persuade Mugabe to stand down with dignity.

Several diplomats said that South African President Thabo Mbeki and Tanzanian leader Jakaya Kikwete were at the forefront of the contacts with Mugabe who has yet to make any public appearance since polling day.

His ministers' reaction to the MDC announcement was notable for its restraint.

"Why rush to announce the results before the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission finishes?" the normally hardline Information Minister Ndlovu Sikhoanyiso told AFP.

"What if the final results are contrary to what they claim? Let's let the electoral commission complete its job then we can start talking from there."

The electoral commission meanwhile was facing a chorus of criticism from abroad over the delay in announcing the presidential result.

"A delay in announcing the outcome can only be seen as a deliberate and calculated tactic," said David Miliband, foreign secretary of the former colonial power Britain.

"It gives substance to the suspicion that the authorities are reluctant to accept the will of the people," Miliband added in a statement on Zimbabwe in the House of Commons.

In Washington, US State Department spokesman Sean McCormack meanwhile said: "We don't think that there is a reason why ...the announcement of all the electoral results should be delayed."

The US and European Union imposed sanctions on the Mugabe regime after accusing him of rigging his re-election in 2002, a move blamed by Harare for the economic woes in a country where inflation stands at over 100,000 per cent.