Zimbabwean opposition claim electoral victory over Mugabe

[LesMTS]

Mugabe has apparently been in talks with the Zimbabwean opposition. It's on the news just now that there's to be a statement made any minute.
All the insiders say it's very likely Mugabe is about to throw in the towel in return for immunity from prosecution.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/7325286.stm

[Semprini]

Not so likely now, apparently.

[Hammer]

I don't think there is a hope in hell that Mugabe will step down willingly or peacefully. Hopefully it can be resolved without too much bloodshed.

[Addy]

Originally Posted by Hammer

I don't think there is a hope in hell that Mugabe will step down willingly or peacefully. Hopefully it can be resolved without too much bloodshed.

Agreed, he isn't going quietly. I'd love to believe he would, but then there's a lot I'd like to believe that I just can't.

[Stew]

I'm surprised, because Mugabe met with his security chiefs and they were all in agreement that his only two course of action should be to 1) declare martial law, or 2) declare electoral victory.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a072986e-...0077b07658.html

Loyalty of military key to Mugabe’s future

By Alec Russell, Southern Africa Correspondent

Published: March 31 2008 18:41 | Last updated: March 31 2008 18:41

When President Robert Mugabe held a crisis meeting on Sunday night to consider his options in the wake of mounting evidence of an opposition victory in the weekend’s elections, it was not with his cabinet, nor with the officials of his ruling Zanu-PF party.

Rather he met the “securocrats” – Zimbabwe’s heads of intelligence, military and security, and according to diplomatic sources their advice was just about as hardline as it has been in every government decision since they assumed a prime role in running the country some years ago.

“In the JOC [Joint Operations Command] meeting there were two options on the table for Mugabe: declare victory on Sunday night or declare martial law,” said a diplomat who spoke to two sources privy to the meeting.

“They didn’t consider conceding. We understand Mugabe nearly decided to declare victory. Cooler heads have prevailed,” he added, saying a decision was taken to rely on the state-appointed Zimbabwe Election Commission to delay the release of results, then try to fix the result in the counting process. The defiant stance is in keeping with the recent record of the JOC, which has held increasing sway over government decisions since the presidential election in 2002.

Diplomats and Zanu-PF dissidents say it is this body which will be decisive in steering the autocrat’s stance in the political crisis engulfing Zimbabwe after Saturday’s elections.

With this in mind, Morgan Tsvangirai, leader of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change, who according to independent tallies of the vote is sweeping to victory in the presidential race, has in the past 24 hours put out feelers to the military. He is hoping that with results from polling stations showing Zanu-PF has been all but routed, increasingly the thoughts of the military chiefs will turn to their own future rather than that of the regime.

In the countdown to the election, heads of the police and the army said they would not take orders from Mr Tsvangirai if he won. According to sources close to the opposition leader, he has sent a message to Solomon Mujuru, a former army commander and a powerbroker in Zanu-PF, asking what “guarantees” the military might want from a new administration. As of Monday morning he had not received a response.

Military officers hold senior positions in civilian bodies such as the Grain Marketing Board, the Electoral Supervisory Commission and the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe. According to a report last year by the International Crisis Group, the JOC oversaw the government’s strategy in the regional attempts to mediate between Zanu-PF and the opposition.

Publicly, senior figures in Zanu-PF are putting a brave face on the situation. But privately they were stunned, analysts say, by the results which, according to independent monitors, signal their first electoral defeat since they took power at independence in 1980. However Mr Mugabe decides to respond, with the economy in freefall, most appreciate that their control on power – and the access to business opportunities and state patronage that has given them – cannot last much longer, say insiders.

One of the critical questions for Zimbabwe now is whether the military commanders can rely on their subordinates to obey orders if the JOC and Mr Mugabe decide to initiate a clampdown on the opposition, as they have done before when under pressure.

In the event of Mr Mugabe claiming a disputed victory, an outbreak of widespread violence, as happened in Kenya in December under similar circumstances, seems unlikely. Zimbabwe does not have Kenya’s combustible ethnic divide, and opposition leaders are keen to avoid giving the government an excuse for a crackdown. But the party fears that the security might use isolated cases of protests to impose a state of emergency.

Mr Mugabe has been careful to try to retain the military commanders’ loyalty. In a speech a year ago he praised the security forces as “the vanguard of our revolution and national integrity” and hailed their “critical role in buttressing our economic activities”.

But diplomats and analysts have long speculated that many in the lower ranks of the security forces are increasingly disillusioned with the regime, given that their families, like most Zimbabweans, are suffering hardship. “Mugabe is in the hands of the military command and they are in the hands of the soldiers, and they sense that the rank and file are not wholly loyal,” said one diplomat.

[DoNotResus]

It's just as well Zimbabwe isn't a major Oil producer or external voices would of made the decision already.

[djtoast]

Originally Posted by DoNotResus

It's just as well Zimbabwe isn't a major Oil producer or external voices would of made the decision already.

In fairness that would probably be better!

[Stew]

It's official, Mugabe's beaten. The only problem now is whether he's pigheaded enough to create shit-fucks of bloodshed, or a smaller amount.

April 3, 2008 - 6:12AM

Zimbabwe's opposition claimed victory over Robert Mugabe in presidential elections, as official results showed the veteran leader's ruling party had lost its parliamentary majority.

As state media predicted a run-off between Mugabe and his arch rival Morgan Tsvangirai, the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) opposition said its own calculations showed party leader Tsvangirai had passed the 50 per cent threshold for outright victory.

But the MDC's pre-emptive announcement, which came before any declaration by the official electoral commission on the presidential contest, was swiftly condemned by the Mugabe government.

Diplomatic sources meanwhile said there were intensive behind-the-scenes efforts to persuade 84-year-old Mugabe, who has ruled the former British colony since independence in 1980, to depart the scene peacefully.

Frustrated at the slow work of the electoral commission since Saturday's joint polls, the MDC's secretary-general Tendai Biti told a press conference that Tsvangirai had won 50.2 per cent of votes against 43.8 per cent for Mugabe.

"Put simply he has won this election ... Morgan Richard Tsvangirai is the next president of the Republic of Zimbabwe, without a run-off."

Biti said the party believed that the government was trying to massage the results and pointed to a front-page story in Wednesday's Herald newspaper that said there was now likely to be a run-off as neither man had a clear majority.

"The state media has already begin to prepare the people for a run-off in 21 days ... If that is the position this party will contest the run-off," he added.

Biti also said that, based on its own calculations, the MDC had won a total of 110 seats, including 11 MPs who are part of a splinter faction.

Shortly afterwards, the latest results from the electoral commission showed Mugabe's ZANU-PF party had lost its majority in the 210-seat parliament.

The two MDC factions now have a combined total of 105 seats while an independent candidate, Mugabe's former information minister Jonathan Moyo, also retained his seat. ZANU-PF's total currently stands at 93.

"The new parliament, with us in the majority, is going to give the people power and freedom through legislation," said Tsvangirai's senior aide Nelson Chamisa in reaction to the results.

With Mugabe's grip on power starting to loosen, diplomatic sources said there was a concerted effort to persuade Mugabe to stand down with dignity.

Several diplomats said that South African President Thabo Mbeki and Tanzanian leader Jakaya Kikwete were at the forefront of the contacts with Mugabe who has yet to make any public appearance since polling day.

His ministers' reaction to the MDC announcement was notable for its restraint.

"Why rush to announce the results before the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission finishes?" the normally hardline Information Minister Ndlovu Sikhoanyiso told AFP.

"What if the final results are contrary to what they claim? Let's let the electoral commission complete its job then we can start talking from there."

The electoral commission meanwhile was facing a chorus of criticism from abroad over the delay in announcing the presidential result.

"A delay in announcing the outcome can only be seen as a deliberate and calculated tactic," said David Miliband, foreign secretary of the former colonial power Britain.

"It gives substance to the suspicion that the authorities are reluctant to accept the will of the people," Miliband added in a statement on Zimbabwe in the House of Commons.

In Washington, US State Department spokesman Sean McCormack meanwhile said: "We don't think that there is a reason why ...the announcement of all the electoral results should be delayed."

The US and European Union imposed sanctions on the Mugabe regime after accusing him of rigging his re-election in 2002, a move blamed by Harare for the economic woes in a country where inflation stands at over 100,000 per cent.

[AWESOMEUS MAXIMUS]

hope the bastard burns.

[Draven]

Aye, he needs a kicking.

As previously put, lucky for him there isn't vast oilfields there or the good 'ol US of A would have napalmed his ass.

[Stew]

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories...MPLATE=DEFAULT

This does not bode well:

HARARE, Zimbabwe (AP) -- Zimbabwe's main opposition party says President Robert Mugabe has "unleashed a war" in his bid to stay in power after party offices were raided and foreign journalists detained five days after presidential elections.

The New York Times are saying Barry Bearak was arrested.

The police are saying they arrested two reporters at York Lodge for "practising without accreditation" and they'll release names tomorrow.

[Stew]

Originally Posted by Stew

The New York Times are saying Barry Bearak was arrested.

It's probably not a good idea to make certain comments in such a turbulent country:

Originally Posted by Barry Bearak

Mugabe is a once lauded liberator and statesman who became a ruthless autocrat to be forever remembered for murderous campaigns against his enemies and an ill-conceived takeover of white-owned farmland that ended up wrecking the economy.

[crusher]

maybe this is anathema to ask but:
does anything that happens in Zimbabwe affect me?
I am about 6000 miles from there in a little 3rd world country called Britain !
I just wondered what relevnce zimbabwe is to anyone other than its nearest neighbours?

[Addy]

Originally Posted by crusher

maybe this is anathema to ask but:
does anything that happens in Zimbabwe affect me?
I am about 6000 miles from there in a little 3rd world country called Britain !
I just wondered what relevnce zimbabwe is to anyone other than its nearest neighbours?

[Stew]

The recount has started.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7355871.stm

Election officials in Zimbabwe have started recounting some of the votes cast in disputed polls held last month. The recount in 23 of 210 constituencies could overturn the parliamentary result which saw Zanu-PF lose its majority.

Results of the presidential poll, which the opposition MDC says it also won, have not been released. It is thought the recount may lead to a run-off vote.

Uh, the article then continues:

Meanwhile, Chinese cargo ship the An Yue Jiang was forced to move after a South African court refused to allow the weapons destined for Zimbabwe which are on board to be transported across the country. Dock workers had refused to unload the weapons shipment from the vessel, which had been anchored off the port of Durban for four days.

The South African Transport and Allied Workers Union had said it did "not agree with the position of the government not to intervene".
Reports say the An Yue Jiang is carrying three million rounds of ammunition, 1,500 rocket-propelled grenades and 2,500 mortar rounds.